Calculating the impact of growth hacking on Company Valuation



"Disruptive technology should be framed as a marketing challenge, not a technological one"
- Clayton M. Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma



The function of this application is to provide an algorithmic proof of this fundamental, but commonly misunderstood, idea about investing in disruptive innovation

It offers you a range of financial levers to remodel the business around the key drivers of investment in customer acquistion, product development, product pricing and administrative overheads

You can change the values to explore how each variable changes the forecasted Enterprise Valuation (EV)

(Note: You can toggle between Subscription and Services based business models)





Existing Customers


Sales Funnel (Monthly)


New Customers (added each month)


Customer Churn (% per Annum)


Average Annual Revenue per User ($ ARPU)


Cost of Customer Acquisition ($ CoCA/Customer)


Gross Margin(%)


R&D as % of Revenue

Admin & General Business Expenses as % of Revenue


Investment in Growth Hacking(%)


Headcount


Manual Overide of EVR:
EVR Multiple




SaaS/eComm Model



Adjusted CoCA (Year 5)

Final monthly coHort of new customers (Year 5)


Cost per Lead

Lead Conversion Rate

Months to Recover CoCA (<12 Benchmark)

Lifetime Value of Customer

LTVC vs. CoCA Ratio (3:1 Benchmark)

Customer Equity

Lifetime Customer Profitibility


ROI Multiple on Marketing Spend


Average Revenue per Employee

Average Profit per Employee


Annual Run Rate


Growth Multiple

Profit Multiple

Valuation Multiple


P/E Ratio

PEG Ratio

Market P/E Ratio



Company Valuation Range
Revenue Multiples

PEG Multiples

Variance


Cash Position



Founder's Shareholding

Founder's Equity



Seed Investor's Shareholding

Seed Investor's Equity

Seed Investor's ROI

Seed Investor's ARR

Variance with Market ARR

Beta






Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5

Revenues

Revenue
Cost of Revenue
Gross Margin

Expenses

Sales & Marketing
Research & Development
Admin and Misc. Expenses
Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Accumulated Proft/Loss

Growth Metrics

Number of Customers
Marketing % of Revenue
Headcount
Year on Year Growth
Ave. Monthly Burn Rate

Funding Metrics

Investment Round
Pre-Valuation
Traditional Valuation










Disclaimer

The use of these calculators, charts, visualisations, data or any information shall be at the user’s sole risk. Such use shall constitute a release and agreement to hold harmless, defend and indemnify Digital Partners from and against any liability (including but not limited to liability for special, indirect or consequential damages) in connection with such use. Such release from and indemnification against liability shall apply in contract, tort (including negligence of such party, whether active, passive, joint or concurrent), strict liability, or other theory of legal liability; provided, however, such release, limitation and indemnity provisions shall be effective to, and only to, the maximum extent, scope or amount allowable by law.

Questions of accuracy

Tymbals is an experiment in machine learning and statistical modelling of small data pools. Tymbals is still under development. It is still learning. Tymbals is Beta - i.e. Pre-release.

The probabilities and outputs (e.g. calculators, charts, visualisations) will evolve and change as the system ingests more data.

Tymbals is a probability model. The results generated by Tymbals are market estimates based on the cummulative value of the data within the distributed data pools.

Privacy

All data inputs are automatically added to the learning pool from which Tymbals models are generated.

If you do not want your data added the data pool do not use Tymbals

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